How a Harris vs Trump administration would impact fashion

This article on Harris vs Trump administrations’ policies is part of our Vogue Business Membership package. To enjoy unlimited access to Member-only reporting and insights, our NFT Tracker, Beauty Trend Tracker and TikTok Trend Tracker, weekly Technology, Beauty and Sustainability Edits and exclusive event invitations, sign up for Membership here. The 2024 US presidential election is on Tuesday 5 November, and with less than a week to go, there’s no clear indicator in the polls whether Democratic nominee Kamala Harris or Republican nominee Donald Trump has the leg-up. But a Harris versus Trump administration has very different implications for the fashion industry. For their part, American designers and brands have rallied to encourage citizens to vote. In September, New York Fashion Week signalled fashion’s political engagement: designers incorporated “vote!” messages and references to Harris on the runways, and tethered their collections to the American experience, Christina Binkley wrote for Vogue Business, at the tail end of NYFW. Vogue and the Council of Fashion Designers of America (CFDA) kicked off the week with Fashion For Our Future, a non-partisan march through Midtown, where First Lady Jill Biden spoke to a thousand-odd fashion industry members. Vogue Business breaks down key points from both parties’ policy plans (collated from the Issues sections of the Harris-Walz and Trump-Vance campaign websites, as well as reporting on campaign rallies) that are likely to impact the US fashion industry. Shipping & manufacturing Harris campaign Harris has proposed government subsidies for building factories in the US, building on the Biden-Harris administration’s efforts to strengthen ‘Made in America’. It’s unclear whether this includes clothing and textile manufacturers. Under Harris, legislation like The Fabric Act could see new momentum. The act focuses on strengthening labour protections within the US garment sector via tax credits for companies to decrease wage theft, and seeks to support domestic apparel manufacturing. The Biden administration has moved to close the de minimis loophole that enables low-value shipments (under $800) to enter the US duty free — a loophole ultra-fast fashion brands like Shein and Temu have been able to capitalise on. Trump campaign Trump has said he will impose a 10 to 20 per cent tariff on imports — and 60 per cent on Chinese imports. This would (theoretically) make fashion and textiles imports from overseas less competitive against American-made goods. But it could also increase the cost of the imported materials US manufacturers need to produce products, further driving up the cost of the Made in America label, as flagged by The New York Times. Taxes Harris campaign Under the Harris-Walz administration, over 100 million working and middle-class Americans will receive a tax cut, per the campaign, which could help maximise spending power. In addition to extending tax credits to families, the administration plans for this to reach manufacturers, too. Harris has also set a goal of hitting 25 million new business applications by the end of her first term, with the view of uplifting small businesses and entrepreneurs. In essence, Harris plans to raise wages and create jobs. The Harris administration also proposes a rise in corporate tax from 21 to 28 per cent, which would include fashion and apparel companies. Harris is an advocate for the Inflation Reduction Act introduced by Biden. Harris has said she will follow Biden’s commitment not to raise taxes for anyone making under $400,000 a year. She also plans to raise the long-term capital gains tax rate from 20 to 28 per cent for those who earn $1 million-plus. Trump campaign During its first term, the Trump administration reduced corporate tax to 21 per cent. If elected, Trump plans to implement more corporate tax cuts. He’s said he will permanently extend the $1.7 trillion in tax cuts for corporations and individuals. Trump also plans to lower the corporate tax rate to 15 per cent for certain companies; it is unclear which will be eligible, or whether this will extend to the fashion industry. AI & technology Harris campaign Harris has said her administration would stick to the plans implemented by the Biden administration in his AI executive order, which was published in October 2023, and offers guidance — but not, as of yet, strict rules — for AI use, and calls for regulation. Brands have started to develop their own standards that align with the standards proposed in the order; under Harris, they would likely be able to continue on this path. Harris has spoken more about technology (AI, blockchain, quantum computing) towards the end of her campaign, gaining the attention of Silicon Valley players. “We will encourage innovative technologies like AI and digital assets while protecting our consumers and investors,” Harris said last month at a fundraiser at Wall Street’s Cipriani. Trump campaign Trump, on the other hand, plans to repeal the AI executive order, and implement its own policy that “support[s] AI development rooted in free speech and human flourishing”. The campaign has not offered further clarity on what form this replacement might take. This would give licence for brands to experiment as they wish — but an absence of regulation also leaves little guidance on the best and safe practices for doing so. Sustainability Harris campaign Harris is expected to introduce a climate-forward agenda; “tackling the climate crisis” is one of the Harris-Walz campaign’s leading points in Chapter Five of its ‘New Way Forward’ policy agenda. At the Democratic National Convention, she called out the “freedom to breathe clean air, drink clean water and live free from the pollution that fuels the climate crisis”. She has also said she will back tax credits for clean energy manufacturing, which could incentivise fashion manufacturers to look towards more sustainable production. Trump campaign Trump has said that he will repeal many of the Biden administration’s “kamikaze climate regulations”. During his first term, Trump dismantled over 100 climate policies and environmental rules, per The New York Times. It appears this would be the approach in his second: at the Republican National Convention, he promised to roll back what he called the Biden administration’s “green new scam”. Less regulation places more onus on brands themselves to produce and operate sustainably — often the more expensive option. Comments, questions or feedback? Email us at feedback@voguebusiness.com. More from this author: Tapestry-Capri merger blocked: Why it matters What selling a bra looks like in 2024 Arc’teryx became an unexpected fashion icon. What’s next?

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